LIME: How much of a challenge will it be to retrofit vehicles to run on ethanol?
Aden: If you're going to be doing this for 25-30 percent of domestic gasoline consumption, you're probably going to have to go to a dedicated ethanol vehicle, or something we call E85, which is 85 percent ethanol and 15 percent gasoline. It's sold out there in several hundred pumps across the U.S., mostly in the Midwest right now. The main vehicles that are out there that can use this right now are flexible fuel vehicles, or FFVs. Something like 4.5 or 5 million FFVs are out on the road right now. It's very simple technology, and very easy to do. We just have to give vehicle manufacturers a motivation to do it, but we're starting to see benefits in that.
LIME: Are we on track to meet President Bush's goal of making cellulosic ethanol practical within six years, replacing at least 75 percent of U.S. oil imports from the Middle East with ethanol by 2025 and supplanting 30 percent of domestic gas consumption within 25 years? How large of a fraction of the energy pie will cellulosic ethanol fulfill in the long run?
Aden: We're probably still on target, but those are definitely aggressive goals and they will be difficult to achieve. But you've got to have a goal to shoot for, and I think those are very worthwhile goals. Here at NREL we've done some work to show what it would take to get to what I would call ‘competitive cellulosic ethanol' within the next six years. As I said, it's aggressive, and it's going to take all of the pieces falling into place, like funding the research at the appropriate levels and policy being maintained. It's going to really be a perfect storm of situations to make sure that it happens. But we have a game plan for how to do it from the research side at least. So it's really a two-phase approach: The first is reducing the cost over the next 6-10 years, and the second, once it is cost-effective, is ramping up that production over the next 25 years.
There's going to be a limit to the amount of cellulosic biomass that you can collect. Ethanol can't do it all, but it does make our portfolio much more sustainable. And that's really the goal. If you can get ethanol and maybe
biodiesel, and get a slate of fuels that consumers can choose from, we're going to be in a much better situation than we are right now, where you have your choice of gasoline or diesel. So the more we can go to these homegrown sources and not have to rely on foreign imports, the better off we'll be.
Paul
and so the government forced the production of ethanol. We're not
talking encouraging, we're talking strong arm mob style tactics, such as 'you, sugar mill, make ethanol instead or we'll kill you'. Not pretty.
It's not that way now of course, and they are really reaping benefits
from it but at the time, that's the way it worked." - Andy Aden
article on the Tahoe, I have read that and I did get a sneak preview of
it because I contributed some advice to the author. That is one of
ethanol's downfalls as a fuel is less miles per gallon than gasoline in
the same engine. However, if given the proper motivation, engines could be retimed to be more efficient because ethanol has a much higher octane rating than gasoline. But more importantly, there are also newer biofuels on the horizon that wouldn't have the mileage losses that ethanol does. Butanol is one example." - Andy Aden
Yes Ethanol, does have a 20% less efficiency in BTU energy then petroleum. But what gets me is that the automakers making E85 vehicles are converting existing low milege vehicles to use E85 for even less mileage. This is why ford and GM are in such trouble. They have the technology to make high mileage, renewable fuel cars, they chose not to do so. They continue to fight and lobby congress to not raise the fuel efficiency standards that are now less MPG then the 1970's. States have tried to force automakers to increase MPG and they lost thier legal case, when a federal judge stated that only OUR congress could legislate fuel efficiency standards. And again earlier this year our house and senate reniged on increasing the standards saying it would hurt americans to raise fuel standards. This is insanity. 90% of Americans (red and blue states) before Katrina in a Yale poll taken June 2005 stated that increase fuel prices were negatively affecting their quality of life and were concerned about our national fuel security. This year in CA a poll was taken with much the same conclusions. Each american has to make a personal decision on this issue, and there are some options, and more coming next year. I'm a mom with 2 kids and drove a van to haul them and thier friends around. I was spending in 2005 $50 once a week to fill up. I bought a diesel mercedes wagon and have driven on 99.9% biodiesel for a year now and spend $50 a month. The higher MPG's in the wagon is the reason. I also know where my fuel was made (I ask every time) the last couple tanks have been from recycled waste grease from the Las Vegas casino's and made in Vegas. With the new national diesel fuel at the pump this month new european vehicles will be entering the states next year. I want an american made car with a mercedes diesel engine that is also a hybrid. Hybrid E85 cars are also possible, this is the answer to the reduced fuel efficiency. I go to the local ford and dodge dealer on a regular basis and ask when will they have a diesel passenger cars, I write to Ford and GM on a regular basis asking for diesel and E85 hybrids. Will you join me? I have been writing to my congress people demanding that they write/sponsor legislation to demand an increase in american car fuel efficiency standards, will you join me?
Kari Lemons
Outreach Director
Biodiesel Council of California
http://www.biodieselcouncil.org